OuterLimits
Dec 30th, 2005, 05:58 AM
Ten Failed Tech Trends for 2005
We're guilty of hype.
But so is everyone else who writes about technology. Most of us gravitate to writing about tech because we think it's cool. So we're starry-eyed, hoping that the shiny new technology that's unwrapped for us by the PR departments of tech companies really will be the next killer product. We're dreamers, but we gravitate from one shiny bauble of a dream to the next one, rarely looking back to see which baubles become treasures and what morphs into dross.
The science fiction writer, Theodore Sturgeon, who when confronted with the notion that 90% of science fiction is crud, famously replied that "90% of everything is crud." That little sound bite has become known as Sturgeon's Revelation. Case's corollary to Sturgeon's Revelation is that 90% of technology trend predictions are wrong. We're the first to admit that we can be wrong, too. So in the spirit of fun and mea culpa, we look at some trends that seemed very real a year ago. Note that these aren't all trends we predicted, but they were all written about by starry-eyed technology writers like us. Let's take a look at them, shall we?
The BTX Form Factor
BTX seemed like a logical solution to the dilemma of ever-increasing heat inside modern high performance PCs. BTX ("balanced technology extended") is to re-lay out motherboard components and re-architect internal airflow to maximize cooling while minimizing noise. But you need a BTX chassis and BTX-compliant cooling solution, which consists of a heat sink and cooling fan. The cooler we tested in late 2004 weighed 2.75 pounds (or 1.25 kilograms) and was massive.
The Intel D915GMH MicroBTX Motherboard
click on image for full view
It's also true that a few companies—Gateway being the most significant example—are shipping BTX desktop systems. But as an overall industry trend, BTX seems to have fallen flat. We have yet to see any BTX cases aimed at performance enthusiasts. The motherboard companies have been slow to ship BTX motherboards. Additionally, AMD-capable BTX motherboards are as rare as hens' teeth.
We were certainly right in the thick of hyping BTX, with articles such as BTX Gains Momentum and DIY PC with an Intel BTX Motherboard and BTX Case.
Rear View of the B300A
click on image for full view
But some of the good parts of BTX seem to have been cherry-picked by various industry players. We've seen a number of CPU coolers, from vendors such as ASUS and Zalman, which mount the fan horizontally and direct the air out the back of the case, rather than blowing it down onto the already hot CPU. Quite a few cases now ship with some kind of ducted mechanism for redirecting hot air, or have adopted 120mm fans in the back of the case. But BTX doesn't seem to have achieved the mainstream status that Intel had hoped
High-Definition Video on the PC
High-definition video and the personal computer seem like perfect matches. The high bit rate and complex nature of HDTV transport streams seem to be a natural fit for the personal computer environment. Even WMV-HD seemed like a no-brainer, offering up stunning image quality.
While high-definition video and the PC may be natural bedfellows, the content providers and studios are not exactly making nice with the tech industry. The studios are deathly afraid that high-definition content will become widely pirated, adversely affecting an already creaky business model. Even Microsoft's WMV-HD, with its flexible and robust digital rights management, couldn't seem to budge the content creators and distributors.
ADVERTISEMENT
Sure, Windows Media Center Edition 2005 could use digital TV tuners and record high-definition, over-the-air broadcasts. But most people don't want to deal with antennas. Besides, most of the action lies in premium content, such as the premium movie channels, "season tickets" for sports broadcasts and so on.
Part of the problem is the proprietary nature of cable TV and satellite providers. While CableCard has made something of a dent in opening up digital cable, the MSO's (multiple system operators) haven't been real enthused about CableCard in its current incarnation. CableCard currently enables only a one-way pipe, which limits the utility of nifty digital services such as video on demand and interactive shopping.
It's still likely that high definition will come to the PC "for real." We'll see what happens at the 2006 Consumer Electronics Show next month. But overall, high-definition video on the PC has been a real disappointment
High Fidelity Digital Audio
Most digital audio on portable players is highly compressed. For the majority of pop and rock music, that's not a big deal. Recordings are often "too hot" even for CDs, and compressing already distorted audio doesn't have much audible impact. But compressed MP3, WMA, and AAC files often will throw away too much.
This isn't exactly a new argument. The iPod and its camp followers in the digital audio player business seem to be the modern incarnation of the 1960s transistor radio. Way back then, audiophiles complained vociferously about how the transistor radio was creating a generation of consumers who couldn't appreciate quality audio. That lament is echoed by industry pundits (me included) who yearn for even higher-fidelity sound than current CD technology can deliver.
While a scant few players do support lossless compression formats (mostly FLAC), lossless formats are generally unavailable for portable players. As the storage capacity of these players increases, the designers seem to think you want to watch tiny video, rather than listen to clean, pristine, losslessly compressed music. So we get ten gazillion songs in 128KB format, rather than a few hundred encoded with lossless compression.
Windows XP Professional x64 Edition
Windows x64
The 64-bit edition of Windows XP seemed to take forever to arrive. Measured in Internet years, it was only an epoch or two, not forever. Athlon 64 users everywhere were clamoring for a 64-bit version of Windows. All of us (yes, me included) were waiting with bated breath for 64-bit gaming, 64-bit video editing, sheer 64-bit nirvana. As the updated version of Windows XP receded into the distance, conspiracy theories arose about whether or not Intel was responsible for delays.
When Windows XP Professional x64 actually arrived, it was all pretty much underwhelming. This is actually not Microsoft's fault. While the kids in Redmond did hype Windows 64-bit enhancements, they also cautioned that x64 would be a tool mostly for developers and certain vertical applications. The 64-bit version of Windows Vista would be the real deal. But most of us weren't listening . . . not listening, LA-LA-LA I WANT MY 64-BIT WINDOWS!!
As it turns out, driver availability has been the main Achilles' heel. While graphics cards, chipsets, and audio drivers have been readily available, drivers for newer printers, webcams, and other common peripherals have been MIA. On top of that, consumer applications have been dribbling out. There have been a scant handful of games, with the latest announcement being Half-Life 2 and Lost Coast. But for the most part, 64-bit games haven't been the panacea. Coupled with the fact that a number of 32-bit games won't run on 64-bit Windows, gamers have been avoiding the new OS.
Even applications you'd expect to see run natively at 64 bits have been scarce. LightWave 8.5, Newtek's 3D authoring package, is available, as is Cakewalk Sonar, a pro digital audio software suite. But missing are 64-bit versions of Autodesk's AutoCAD and 3ds Max, Adobe's software suite, and many others.
Sure, 64-bit computing will arrive, but the self-inflicted hype surrounding Windows x64 hasn't helped convince users. As with similar transitions in the past, it will take several years before 64-bit on the desktop PC becomes mainstream.
High Definition Optical Drives
2005 was the year that high-definition optical drives would arrive on the scene, along with high def movies on disk. This particular missing trend is more the result of a self-inflicted wound by the industry than of pure overhype. The HD-DVD and Blu-ray groups took turns sniping at each other, logging design wins, gaining—and losing—adherents. All the while, the lessons of the original DVD standard were lost.
Consumers don't want multiple standards. DVD was successful because there was only one standard. One of the reasons that DVD recorders for consumers haven't been bought by consumers in droves was because of the confusion inherent in multiple DVD writeable media standards. By all rights, DVD burners should have replaced VCRs, but the sealed box with a hard drive solution pioneered by TiVO ended up capturing consumers' hearts and minds.
NEC's HD DVD Player
click on image for full view
The latest debacle revolves around the AACS (Advanced Access Content System) content-protection system. Here, "Advanced Access" is a euphemism for restricting access to content. But the standards body developing AACS hasn't been able to formally agree on an AACS standard, even though it's been working on this for well over a year now.
Apparently, the Betamax versus VHS conflict and the aforementioned writeable DVD debacle hasn't really taken hold in the minds of marketers and CEOs at the consumer electronics companies. It's like watching a slow-motion train wreck in the making.
The consumer electronics industry should remember the tag line from the movie Highlander: There can be only one.
Copy Protection for Music CDs
The recent debacle surrounding Sony's copy protected music CDs was simply the latest in a series of failed attempts to copy-protect music CDs. While the Sony rootkit incident has been the worst offender, there have been past attempts to get around the CD audio standard in a misguided effort to protect the music sold on CD.
Hint to the music publishers: It's not going to work. There have been easy workarounds to every system that's been tried, and the more stringent the copy protection, the greater the risk of having angry customers who won't buy CDs. I suggest you start investigating new business models, as the old ones ride off into the sunset.
The problem lies in trying to back-fill a capability never defined in the standard and not built into hardware or software. Trying to layer content protection onto Red Book audio CDs while still maintaining compatibility is a losing game. Others have tried a different tack—don't be completely compatible, but add other useful features. DualDisc is one example of this, adding a reverse side that's a single-layer DVD. But the audio CD side won't play in most computers. Some buyers find the trade-off worthwhile.
Me? I just buy audio CDs and rip them onto my PC in lossless format. And I avoid copy-protected audio CDs like the plague. I've even taken the time to explain the issue to my musically inclined 15-year-old daughter. She thinks it sucks, too, but now she's encouraging her friends not to buy.
iPod Competitors Emerge
iPod nano
Apple commands a market share in the digital audio player business in the same way that Microsoft commands market share in desktop operating systems. 2005 was supposed to be the year that Apple's share would start to erode. When I was at the Computex trade show in Taiwan last summer, booths were filled with hordes of MP3 players of various types. While many were "me too" flash devices, I did see some pretty slick players.
Microsoft also took some initiative, launching the PlaysForSure program. The idea was to create a standard way for digital music services and music players to talk to each other. Given the awful name, though, the results were predictable. "PlaysForSure" really meant "plays slightly better." It worked fine if you bought a new, certified player, but people with existing non-iPod devices had to update the firmware in their music players. Just how many casual music listeners would even know a firmware update if the binary code up and bit them is anyone's guess.
To be fair, Microsoft's WMA standard has a lot going for it. The audio quality of WMA files is generally pretty good, and the DRM can be pretty flexible.
The problem is that there's almost too much choice. On the service side, you have Napster, MSN Music, Yahoo MusicMatch, Rhapsody and others. On the iPod side you have... iTunes. The digital music business seems to be the antithesis of the PC hardware business. On the personal computer side, increasing product choices leads to a wealth of innovative products and additional flexibility for PC buyers. On the digital music side, increasing player and service choices seems to lead to increased buyer confusion and frustration. Couple that with the arcane user interface of some of the WMA-based players and their associated software, and the potent iPod/iTunes connected-at-the-hip approach seems like a no-brainer for most buyers.
To Apple's credit, it's rolling out great new products. The nano is a superb example of Apple redefining both the micro-hard drive and flash memory segment of the market. The new iPod is a nice entry-level video player that doesn't expect too much from users, whereas most digital media players seem to want you to have an engineering degree just to understand the video compression jargon.
Will 2006 see the emergence of viable competitors for Apple in the digital music space? Will aliens from Vega come down and impose peace and a golden age on all humanity? You tell me.
The Digital Home
Let's be careful about our definitions here. A vast array of digital technologies already exists in the home. Digital music players, DVDs, home networks, PCs, camcorders and digital cameras are all digital technologies. So in a sense, most homes today are "digital" in some sense. But the idea of a completely connected home, where your refrigerator, TV, PC, cell phone and content are all part of a networked whole, which is in turn connected to the global internet, is still a pipe dream.
All the technology ingredients exist today; though connecting the disparate pieces still isn't easy. But no one has come up with a compelling reason. I can't figure out why I would want to watch my DVDs in the kitchen while listening to music piped in from my PC. I don't know about you, but the idea of my refrigerator knowing the contents inside and ordering food automatically as I use it suggest that I actually know what I'm going to want to eat next week.
A few of the ingredients do make sense. I've got a digital music adapter upstairs in my house which can stream music from my PC to my living room audio system. It works great, but that assumes I have my PC turned on. This is silly, since I have an always-on, network attached storage device. The good old bugaboo, DRM, prevents the digital music adapter from streaming music directly from the NAS device. In fact, even if my PC is running, Windows Media Connect doesn't allow network shares to be streamed, despite that I legally own my music and can, in fact, play the same music if it's stored on the PC itself.
Until this sort of issue is sorted out, and it becomes actually—dare we say it—convenient and compelling—the digital home will be the purview of Intel and Microsoft marketing managers who dream of selling more PCs into the home.
Google's Gmail Service
Gmail
When Gmail launched, everyone heralded it as the coming of a new email paradigm that would rule the world.
There are several problems with this idea. First off, the Gmail screen still reads "BETA." Will it ever not be beta? Who knows? That means that you still need to be invited to, uh, participate in the beta.
Do you have a Gmail address? If so, raise your hand. Ah, good, there are a few. Now, do you use your Gmail account as your primary account to actually send and receive mail? Riiigghhht, most of you put your hands down.
What Gmail did that was the real bombshell was to up the storage limitation to 2GB (now nearly 3GB according to my Gmail page). But Google's competitors mostly followed suit, and now everyone has vast amounts of storage.
Gmail is inconvenient in many ways. Managing a mailing list isn't trivial. Trying to send legitimate attachments with executable files is **** near impossible. Even ZIP files are a chore.
In fact, Gmail hasn't changed the email habits of users. However, Gmail has had a positive impact, by causing competitors like Yahoo and MSN to rethink how they handle free email. I've been playing around with the Yahoo mail beta, and it offers a slick, Outlook-like user interface. Plus, I can send attachments of any type, and Yahoo handles all the virus scanning at both ends.
So Gmail has had a positive impact, in that it got the web mail providers to get off their collective posteriors and update their anemic services. And that's certainly been good for all users. But Gmail itself now seems to be lagging. Will Gmail ever come out of beta? Or is it simply a viral marketing ploy? Maybe 2006 will reveal all
http://www.extremetech.com/article2/0,1697,1906436,00.asp
We're guilty of hype.
But so is everyone else who writes about technology. Most of us gravitate to writing about tech because we think it's cool. So we're starry-eyed, hoping that the shiny new technology that's unwrapped for us by the PR departments of tech companies really will be the next killer product. We're dreamers, but we gravitate from one shiny bauble of a dream to the next one, rarely looking back to see which baubles become treasures and what morphs into dross.
The science fiction writer, Theodore Sturgeon, who when confronted with the notion that 90% of science fiction is crud, famously replied that "90% of everything is crud." That little sound bite has become known as Sturgeon's Revelation. Case's corollary to Sturgeon's Revelation is that 90% of technology trend predictions are wrong. We're the first to admit that we can be wrong, too. So in the spirit of fun and mea culpa, we look at some trends that seemed very real a year ago. Note that these aren't all trends we predicted, but they were all written about by starry-eyed technology writers like us. Let's take a look at them, shall we?
The BTX Form Factor
BTX seemed like a logical solution to the dilemma of ever-increasing heat inside modern high performance PCs. BTX ("balanced technology extended") is to re-lay out motherboard components and re-architect internal airflow to maximize cooling while minimizing noise. But you need a BTX chassis and BTX-compliant cooling solution, which consists of a heat sink and cooling fan. The cooler we tested in late 2004 weighed 2.75 pounds (or 1.25 kilograms) and was massive.
The Intel D915GMH MicroBTX Motherboard
click on image for full view
It's also true that a few companies—Gateway being the most significant example—are shipping BTX desktop systems. But as an overall industry trend, BTX seems to have fallen flat. We have yet to see any BTX cases aimed at performance enthusiasts. The motherboard companies have been slow to ship BTX motherboards. Additionally, AMD-capable BTX motherboards are as rare as hens' teeth.
We were certainly right in the thick of hyping BTX, with articles such as BTX Gains Momentum and DIY PC with an Intel BTX Motherboard and BTX Case.
Rear View of the B300A
click on image for full view
But some of the good parts of BTX seem to have been cherry-picked by various industry players. We've seen a number of CPU coolers, from vendors such as ASUS and Zalman, which mount the fan horizontally and direct the air out the back of the case, rather than blowing it down onto the already hot CPU. Quite a few cases now ship with some kind of ducted mechanism for redirecting hot air, or have adopted 120mm fans in the back of the case. But BTX doesn't seem to have achieved the mainstream status that Intel had hoped
High-Definition Video on the PC
High-definition video and the personal computer seem like perfect matches. The high bit rate and complex nature of HDTV transport streams seem to be a natural fit for the personal computer environment. Even WMV-HD seemed like a no-brainer, offering up stunning image quality.
While high-definition video and the PC may be natural bedfellows, the content providers and studios are not exactly making nice with the tech industry. The studios are deathly afraid that high-definition content will become widely pirated, adversely affecting an already creaky business model. Even Microsoft's WMV-HD, with its flexible and robust digital rights management, couldn't seem to budge the content creators and distributors.
ADVERTISEMENT
Sure, Windows Media Center Edition 2005 could use digital TV tuners and record high-definition, over-the-air broadcasts. But most people don't want to deal with antennas. Besides, most of the action lies in premium content, such as the premium movie channels, "season tickets" for sports broadcasts and so on.
Part of the problem is the proprietary nature of cable TV and satellite providers. While CableCard has made something of a dent in opening up digital cable, the MSO's (multiple system operators) haven't been real enthused about CableCard in its current incarnation. CableCard currently enables only a one-way pipe, which limits the utility of nifty digital services such as video on demand and interactive shopping.
It's still likely that high definition will come to the PC "for real." We'll see what happens at the 2006 Consumer Electronics Show next month. But overall, high-definition video on the PC has been a real disappointment
High Fidelity Digital Audio
Most digital audio on portable players is highly compressed. For the majority of pop and rock music, that's not a big deal. Recordings are often "too hot" even for CDs, and compressing already distorted audio doesn't have much audible impact. But compressed MP3, WMA, and AAC files often will throw away too much.
This isn't exactly a new argument. The iPod and its camp followers in the digital audio player business seem to be the modern incarnation of the 1960s transistor radio. Way back then, audiophiles complained vociferously about how the transistor radio was creating a generation of consumers who couldn't appreciate quality audio. That lament is echoed by industry pundits (me included) who yearn for even higher-fidelity sound than current CD technology can deliver.
While a scant few players do support lossless compression formats (mostly FLAC), lossless formats are generally unavailable for portable players. As the storage capacity of these players increases, the designers seem to think you want to watch tiny video, rather than listen to clean, pristine, losslessly compressed music. So we get ten gazillion songs in 128KB format, rather than a few hundred encoded with lossless compression.
Windows XP Professional x64 Edition
Windows x64
The 64-bit edition of Windows XP seemed to take forever to arrive. Measured in Internet years, it was only an epoch or two, not forever. Athlon 64 users everywhere were clamoring for a 64-bit version of Windows. All of us (yes, me included) were waiting with bated breath for 64-bit gaming, 64-bit video editing, sheer 64-bit nirvana. As the updated version of Windows XP receded into the distance, conspiracy theories arose about whether or not Intel was responsible for delays.
When Windows XP Professional x64 actually arrived, it was all pretty much underwhelming. This is actually not Microsoft's fault. While the kids in Redmond did hype Windows 64-bit enhancements, they also cautioned that x64 would be a tool mostly for developers and certain vertical applications. The 64-bit version of Windows Vista would be the real deal. But most of us weren't listening . . . not listening, LA-LA-LA I WANT MY 64-BIT WINDOWS!!
As it turns out, driver availability has been the main Achilles' heel. While graphics cards, chipsets, and audio drivers have been readily available, drivers for newer printers, webcams, and other common peripherals have been MIA. On top of that, consumer applications have been dribbling out. There have been a scant handful of games, with the latest announcement being Half-Life 2 and Lost Coast. But for the most part, 64-bit games haven't been the panacea. Coupled with the fact that a number of 32-bit games won't run on 64-bit Windows, gamers have been avoiding the new OS.
Even applications you'd expect to see run natively at 64 bits have been scarce. LightWave 8.5, Newtek's 3D authoring package, is available, as is Cakewalk Sonar, a pro digital audio software suite. But missing are 64-bit versions of Autodesk's AutoCAD and 3ds Max, Adobe's software suite, and many others.
Sure, 64-bit computing will arrive, but the self-inflicted hype surrounding Windows x64 hasn't helped convince users. As with similar transitions in the past, it will take several years before 64-bit on the desktop PC becomes mainstream.
High Definition Optical Drives
2005 was the year that high-definition optical drives would arrive on the scene, along with high def movies on disk. This particular missing trend is more the result of a self-inflicted wound by the industry than of pure overhype. The HD-DVD and Blu-ray groups took turns sniping at each other, logging design wins, gaining—and losing—adherents. All the while, the lessons of the original DVD standard were lost.
Consumers don't want multiple standards. DVD was successful because there was only one standard. One of the reasons that DVD recorders for consumers haven't been bought by consumers in droves was because of the confusion inherent in multiple DVD writeable media standards. By all rights, DVD burners should have replaced VCRs, but the sealed box with a hard drive solution pioneered by TiVO ended up capturing consumers' hearts and minds.
NEC's HD DVD Player
click on image for full view
The latest debacle revolves around the AACS (Advanced Access Content System) content-protection system. Here, "Advanced Access" is a euphemism for restricting access to content. But the standards body developing AACS hasn't been able to formally agree on an AACS standard, even though it's been working on this for well over a year now.
Apparently, the Betamax versus VHS conflict and the aforementioned writeable DVD debacle hasn't really taken hold in the minds of marketers and CEOs at the consumer electronics companies. It's like watching a slow-motion train wreck in the making.
The consumer electronics industry should remember the tag line from the movie Highlander: There can be only one.
Copy Protection for Music CDs
The recent debacle surrounding Sony's copy protected music CDs was simply the latest in a series of failed attempts to copy-protect music CDs. While the Sony rootkit incident has been the worst offender, there have been past attempts to get around the CD audio standard in a misguided effort to protect the music sold on CD.
Hint to the music publishers: It's not going to work. There have been easy workarounds to every system that's been tried, and the more stringent the copy protection, the greater the risk of having angry customers who won't buy CDs. I suggest you start investigating new business models, as the old ones ride off into the sunset.
The problem lies in trying to back-fill a capability never defined in the standard and not built into hardware or software. Trying to layer content protection onto Red Book audio CDs while still maintaining compatibility is a losing game. Others have tried a different tack—don't be completely compatible, but add other useful features. DualDisc is one example of this, adding a reverse side that's a single-layer DVD. But the audio CD side won't play in most computers. Some buyers find the trade-off worthwhile.
Me? I just buy audio CDs and rip them onto my PC in lossless format. And I avoid copy-protected audio CDs like the plague. I've even taken the time to explain the issue to my musically inclined 15-year-old daughter. She thinks it sucks, too, but now she's encouraging her friends not to buy.
iPod Competitors Emerge
iPod nano
Apple commands a market share in the digital audio player business in the same way that Microsoft commands market share in desktop operating systems. 2005 was supposed to be the year that Apple's share would start to erode. When I was at the Computex trade show in Taiwan last summer, booths were filled with hordes of MP3 players of various types. While many were "me too" flash devices, I did see some pretty slick players.
Microsoft also took some initiative, launching the PlaysForSure program. The idea was to create a standard way for digital music services and music players to talk to each other. Given the awful name, though, the results were predictable. "PlaysForSure" really meant "plays slightly better." It worked fine if you bought a new, certified player, but people with existing non-iPod devices had to update the firmware in their music players. Just how many casual music listeners would even know a firmware update if the binary code up and bit them is anyone's guess.
To be fair, Microsoft's WMA standard has a lot going for it. The audio quality of WMA files is generally pretty good, and the DRM can be pretty flexible.
The problem is that there's almost too much choice. On the service side, you have Napster, MSN Music, Yahoo MusicMatch, Rhapsody and others. On the iPod side you have... iTunes. The digital music business seems to be the antithesis of the PC hardware business. On the personal computer side, increasing product choices leads to a wealth of innovative products and additional flexibility for PC buyers. On the digital music side, increasing player and service choices seems to lead to increased buyer confusion and frustration. Couple that with the arcane user interface of some of the WMA-based players and their associated software, and the potent iPod/iTunes connected-at-the-hip approach seems like a no-brainer for most buyers.
To Apple's credit, it's rolling out great new products. The nano is a superb example of Apple redefining both the micro-hard drive and flash memory segment of the market. The new iPod is a nice entry-level video player that doesn't expect too much from users, whereas most digital media players seem to want you to have an engineering degree just to understand the video compression jargon.
Will 2006 see the emergence of viable competitors for Apple in the digital music space? Will aliens from Vega come down and impose peace and a golden age on all humanity? You tell me.
The Digital Home
Let's be careful about our definitions here. A vast array of digital technologies already exists in the home. Digital music players, DVDs, home networks, PCs, camcorders and digital cameras are all digital technologies. So in a sense, most homes today are "digital" in some sense. But the idea of a completely connected home, where your refrigerator, TV, PC, cell phone and content are all part of a networked whole, which is in turn connected to the global internet, is still a pipe dream.
All the technology ingredients exist today; though connecting the disparate pieces still isn't easy. But no one has come up with a compelling reason. I can't figure out why I would want to watch my DVDs in the kitchen while listening to music piped in from my PC. I don't know about you, but the idea of my refrigerator knowing the contents inside and ordering food automatically as I use it suggest that I actually know what I'm going to want to eat next week.
A few of the ingredients do make sense. I've got a digital music adapter upstairs in my house which can stream music from my PC to my living room audio system. It works great, but that assumes I have my PC turned on. This is silly, since I have an always-on, network attached storage device. The good old bugaboo, DRM, prevents the digital music adapter from streaming music directly from the NAS device. In fact, even if my PC is running, Windows Media Connect doesn't allow network shares to be streamed, despite that I legally own my music and can, in fact, play the same music if it's stored on the PC itself.
Until this sort of issue is sorted out, and it becomes actually—dare we say it—convenient and compelling—the digital home will be the purview of Intel and Microsoft marketing managers who dream of selling more PCs into the home.
Google's Gmail Service
Gmail
When Gmail launched, everyone heralded it as the coming of a new email paradigm that would rule the world.
There are several problems with this idea. First off, the Gmail screen still reads "BETA." Will it ever not be beta? Who knows? That means that you still need to be invited to, uh, participate in the beta.
Do you have a Gmail address? If so, raise your hand. Ah, good, there are a few. Now, do you use your Gmail account as your primary account to actually send and receive mail? Riiigghhht, most of you put your hands down.
What Gmail did that was the real bombshell was to up the storage limitation to 2GB (now nearly 3GB according to my Gmail page). But Google's competitors mostly followed suit, and now everyone has vast amounts of storage.
Gmail is inconvenient in many ways. Managing a mailing list isn't trivial. Trying to send legitimate attachments with executable files is **** near impossible. Even ZIP files are a chore.
In fact, Gmail hasn't changed the email habits of users. However, Gmail has had a positive impact, by causing competitors like Yahoo and MSN to rethink how they handle free email. I've been playing around with the Yahoo mail beta, and it offers a slick, Outlook-like user interface. Plus, I can send attachments of any type, and Yahoo handles all the virus scanning at both ends.
So Gmail has had a positive impact, in that it got the web mail providers to get off their collective posteriors and update their anemic services. And that's certainly been good for all users. But Gmail itself now seems to be lagging. Will Gmail ever come out of beta? Or is it simply a viral marketing ploy? Maybe 2006 will reveal all
http://www.extremetech.com/article2/0,1697,1906436,00.asp