Individual Podcast Growth Potential

[jeffoest]

Some of you may find these 'growth' statistics interesting. Essentially for curiouslity, I had been tracking since April some of those podcasters who made their feedburner circulation numbers public. The results are below:

http://www.thisandthatpodcast.com/statistics.htm

If you were to ask me last April what I expected these numbers to look like, I would have guessed that just about all podcasts would see continual growth over the year. but that's not really the case. Sure, there is quite a range in podcasts and total subscribers. And sure, just about every podcast has seen periods of nice growth. But everyone has leveled off at some point.

But doesn't it seem that most podcasts have a growth period and a leveling off and sometimes even a bit of a decline?

A hunch is that while podcasting has certainly received great attention over the year and more and more subscribers, at the same time there have been more and more podcasts introduced and more variety and choices for those subscribers creating a kind of a 'leveling'.

To me, the numbers support a thought that I've been having over the last three months or so and one I have shared here. Podcasting shows are for relatively small and splintered (and sometimes very devoted) audiences. To be succesful and happy being a podcaster, one must be happy knowing that a show will at some point "max" out in terms of sheer numbers. And that's OK.

Now, this is only the first of podcasting of course. Next year could see a different dynamic.

How do you guys interpret it?

[radiofilibuster]

The onslaught of new podcast listeners is being met by a similar onslaught of new podcasters. From the small statistical sample, market supply appears to meet and possibly exceed market demand, despite fast growth on both sides.

Or, in other words... "what Jeff said".

2006 may be a curious year. Demand will continue to increase. However, we have already seen signs of attrition among existing podcasters. Whether or not this attrition will have a significant impact versus entry of new podcasters remains to be seen. Given low barriers to entry, the influx of new podcasters may make a 2006 numbers drop similar to 2005... if not more pronounced.

Thanks for the link, Jeff.

[kinkysex]

I think most of us just don't understand marketing.

We come out of the gate, or "launch" with a myspace site or whatever, then level off and don't know what to do for phase 2.

As podcasters attract marketing types or become marketing types, I think we'll see certain flat areas once again become peaks.

[SFEley]

But doesn't it seem that most podcasts have a growth period and a leveling off and sometimes even a bit of a decline?
I think that's a fair statement. And I think KinkySex's explanation for it is a good one. People do very well for themselves getting word-of-mouth out among podcasters, get their promo played, etc. -- but relatively few podcasters are successfully marketing themselves outside of the core base of people already listening to podcasts. That core base is what's limited right now, not our shows' potential. We all need to be reaching out further than we are, to people who don't already get podcasting. We need to give them a reason.


To be succesful and happy being a podcaster, one must be happy knowing that a show will at some point "max" out in terms of sheer numbers. And that's OK.
Here's a tip: get a group of people who care about your podcast and make them part of your team. Find people with talents that you don't have, and put them to work. Give them roles that matter, and a stake in your success. And get them involved in your marketing.

Escape Pod has this. We're becoming a 501(c)(3) corporation, so I assembled a group of friends to be EP's Board of Directors. Some are podcasters, some are writers, and they all have different skills and connections. All have done work for the podcast.

We had our first board meeting on Sunday night via Skype. The first brainstorming topic was marketing. Collectively we came up with six totally new ideas, at least four of which are brilliant. >8-> We all have action plans to follow up on now, and I think the first quarter of 2006 is going to be really, really good for us.

Our goal is to have 20,000 listeners in two years. I believe this is achievable. And since we do help promote other podcasts, and since most people who start listening to a podcast don't then settle for just one podcast, I believe our plans are good for podcasting as a whole.

In short, I feel very good about the future.

[jeffoest]

Truly excellent points all. My gut says that you guys are correct. Marketing Phase II needs to start.

In one way, I suppose this will separate the serious vs. the not-too-serious.

Aggresive and intelligent marketing takes a lot of thought, planning, creativeness and time. I imagine that it could take the very intentioned and diligent planning work like SFEley is engaged in to truly transcent the plateaus.

20,000 in one way seems very aggressive but in another way seems achievable when compared to the media picture overall. Good luck with it!

[kinkysex]

Truly excellent points all. My gut says that you guys are correct. Marketing Phase II needs to start.
Aggresive and intelligent marketing takes a lot of thought, planning, creativeness and time. I imagine that it could take the very intentioned and diligent planning work like SFEley is engaged in to truly transcent the plateaus.

I think phase II will be VERY different for individual podcasters. I, for example, have a HUGE underground group that is already very tightly orginized. At every stop I pick up 100 new listeners with just one hour of public speaking. Hip-hop had the same kind of base, so does sci-fi.

Music shows are going to have a heck of a time, though. Most underground music changes so often, I don't know how they'll do it. I don't envy music shows, you have my sympathy.

Personality shows I think have to do the least marketing. I tell people about shows like Air Ferg. I only tell my tech savvy friends about Twit. A funny personality show can just wait for the numbers (to a degree), the challenge with them is keeping it funny, and getting the fans to promote 'em.

[mesoed]

I think phase II will be VERY different for individual podcasters. I, for example, have a HUGE underground group that is already very tightly orginized. At every stop I pick up 100 new listeners with just one hour of public speaking. Hip-hop had the same kind of base, so does sci-fi.

Music shows are going to have a heck of a time, though. Most underground music changes so often, I don't know how they'll do it. I don't envy music shows, you have my sympathy.

Personality shows I think have to do the least marketing. I tell people about shows like Air Ferg. I only tell my tech savvy friends about Twit. A funny personality show can just wait for the numbers (to a degree), the challenge with them is keeping it funny, and getting the fans to promote 'em.
I think music shows are really the ones that will benefit the most from those changing over from traditional media. More people listen to the radio for music than for anything else. It's their ability to get their show refined to a specific genera and their ability to make themselves stand out around the competition that will be the most difficult.

I personally think the audio blog/couple cast shows are going to have the most problems. They are generic enough, on the whole, that there has to be enough fresh stuff to keep their curent listeners listening, and they need to do some serious work to peak the interest of those that are new to podcasting.

As many of said... the more niche your podcast, the more marketability you have. What spurned the growth of the cable industry? It really wasn't the "you can have 100 channels" thing, but more the niche networks such as HBO, MTV, and CNN. Things you really can't find packaged neatly by itself anywhere else. Podcasting has it's My Marilyn, Whiteroof Radio, Mommycast, and countless others that draw upon a niche. These are the shows that will need to do the least work. Big value in the places they CAN market their shows, and many people looking for their niche will come to them.

[BillClintonPodshow]

Essentially for curiouslity, I had been tracking since April some of those podcasters who made their feedburner circulation numbers public. The results are below:

Are you sure about these numbers? They seem kind of low. Some of the podcasts mentioned are considered famous in the podcast world. If these are the actual feed subscriptions of these shows it's kind of depressing. I was under the impression podcasts were attracting thousands of listeners, not hundreds.

:|

[jeffoest]

Essentially for curiouslity, I had been tracking since April some of those podcasters who made their feedburner circulation numbers public. The results are below:

Are you sure about these numbers? They seem kind of low. Some of the podcasts mentioned are considered famous in the podcast world. If these are the actual feed subscriptions of these shows it's kind of depressing. I was under the impression podcasts were attracting thousands of listeners, not hundreds.

:|

It's impossible to get the wrong numbers from Feedburner. Yea - podcasting has a ways to go. But that's an opportunity, not a problem.

[SFEley]

Are you sure about these numbers? They seem kind of low. Some of the podcasts mentioned are considered famous in the podcast world.

One thing we all need to keep in mind, always, is that "famous in the podcast world" doesn't mean much. "The podcast world" is primarily composed of other podcasters, and as such it's a relatively small, highly incestuous community. The vast majority of podcast listeners will never be reading Podcast Alley or following the mailing lists to figure out which shows we're gossiping about. It's simply not important to them.

If these are the actual feed subscriptions of these shows it's kind of depressing. I was under the impression podcasts were attracting thousands of listeners, not hundreds.
Some are. Notice the top few lines on Jeff's chart?

Those are the shows that know how to market themselves well to people outside the podcasting community.

[SFEley]

But that's an opportunity, not a problem.
Well said.

[Marilynfan]

I definatley agree that the key is getting to the people that do not currently listen to podcasts. I know that more than 50% of my listeners download the show directly instead of subscribe. And that is simply because it is easier for them. Most of my listeners do not listen to any other podcasts and they are not interested in the more technical side of it (ex. podcatchers, etc). They also mostly listen on their computers. They found out about my show because I posted on Marilyn Monroe message boards and fan clubs. That is my audience base. But I have to start coming up with some creative ideas in the new year to introduce new listeners.

I disagree that I won't have to work as hard to market my show because it is a niche audience. How exactly will Marilyn fans find me? I have exhausted my current clubs/boards online. This may be lame but I carry around business cards for my show because I get a lot of comments about my MM purse when people see it. They'll say, "Oh, what a great purse I love Marilyn." So then I hand them my card :)

Here is something else I did. I put one of my cafepress logo shirts up for sale on Ebay. Of course, it didn't sell but that wasn't the point. 85 people looked at that auction which obviously had a link to my show :)

[kinkysex]

Here is something else I did. I put one of my cafepress logo shirts up for sale on Ebay. Of course, it didn't sell but that wasn't the point. 85 people looked at that auction which obviously had a link to my show :)

Brilliant! Just brilliant!
I'm stealing this idea, k?

[Marilynfan]

Brilliant! Just brilliant!
I'm stealing this idea, k?

Of course! That is why I posted it! Here is the tip...you obviously list it for what the shirt sells for on your cafepress site and state the shipping it would cost from cafepress to the buyer. If it does sell, great you order from cafepress and have the shirt shipped directly to the buyer. If it doesn't it is still a great ad that only cost something like 60 cents for the listing fee.

My friends have been telling me for years that I should be in marketing. I always have some money making scheme in the works :)

[BillClintonPodshow]

I second KinkyS. Marilyn that's brilliant. I'm gonna use the idea too. :D

[BillClintonPodshow]

It's impossible to get the wrong numbers from Feedburner. Yea - podcasting has a ways to go. But that's an opportunity, not a problem.

You are right. I'm just surprised. As the numbers are now, podcasting really is virgin land. We do have a chance to beat these numbers and be on top of the hill. :twisted: :wink:

[tabulator32]

Hey! I was one of the 85!

I thought your shirt was cool!

8)

[Marilynfan]

Hey! I was one of the 85!

I thought your shirt was cool!

8)

THANKS! At this point there isn't alot of listing under "podcast" so I think now is the time to do stuff like that.

[tabulator32]

That is exactly how I found it. I did a search for "Podcast" on Ebay to see what came up.

There ain't much!

[pwfenton]

It's impossible to get the wrong numbers from Feedburner.

Never have more "famous last words" been spoken. Nothing, especially when gathering stats, is "impossible".

I would feel more confident guaranteeing that these figures are incorrect rather than suggesting they were infallible.

[kinkysex]

THANKS! At this point there isn't alot of listing under "podcast" so I think now is the time to do stuff like that.

How do you find the "podcast" listing. I listed under 'clothing'. Sorry, but I don't use ebay and it's obviously designed by color blind people who are crazy.

Search for, "spank your radio" on ebay and my shirt pops up. Yeah!

Or you can purchase my propoganda from my website!

Woo hoo! I'm a corporate whore!

[cinesnob]

I had read that in the middle of last year The Diffusion Group, a digital media entertaining research firm stated the current US podcasting audience consisted of about 840,000 listeners. Wonder if we've hit or surpassed a million yet? They predict 60,000,000 by 2010.

[WildeGeek]

It's impossible to get the wrong numbers from Feedburner.
Never have more "famous last words" been spoken. Nothing, especially when gathering stats, is "impossible".

I would feel more confident guaranteeing that these figures are incorrect rather than suggesting they were infallible.
One thing I know from comparing my Feedburner stats to my own analysis using Analog (http://www.analog.cx/), is that Feedburner under-reports my iTunes subscribers alone by about 40%. I think that's because most listeners don't fire up their client every day, or only have it set to poll weekly.

Feedburner only records the number of unique clients over the past 24 hours. That partially explains why my Feedburner subscriptions are about 25% of my MP3 downloads.

[kinkysex]

Feedburner under-reports my iTunes subscribers alone by about 40%.

No sh*t? I'm gonna have to check that program out.

"Good news everybody!" - Prof. Farnsworth

[Marilynfan]

How do you find the "podcast" listing. I listed under 'clothing'. Sorry, but I don't use ebay and it's obviously designed by color blind people who are crazy.



By podcast "listing" I meant when people do a search for "podcast" my shirt would come up because I put "podcast" in the title.

[WyethDigital]

Of course! That is why I posted it! Here is the tip...you obviously list it for what the shirt sells for on your cafepress site and state the shipping it would cost from cafepress to the buyer. If it does sell, great you order from cafepress and have the shirt shipped directly to the buyer. If it doesn't it is still a great ad that only cost something like 60 cents for the listing fee.

My friends have been telling me for years that I should be in marketing. I always have some money making scheme in the works :)

I did the same thing for my small business a couple of years ago. Got some interested parties, and even a little business. My auctions were for services (videography, DVD production), and no one bid on them, but like I said, I got hits from it! Now I need to get my butt in gear and do it again!

Thanks for the reminder!

Eric

[womengrow]

Thanks for assembling all the data. It's interesting to see it all laid out like this.

The challenge really is to reach out beyond the initial community of podcast fans to those who are just finding out about what podcasting is all about. I am starting to post on message boards that cover the issues that my podcast addresses, but aren't podcast forums. Link to my show page is in the signature, that's about as far as I push it.

Every new listener is a success.

[SFEley]

The challenge really is to reach out beyond the initial community of podcast fans to those who are just finding out about what podcasting is all about. I am starting to post on message boards that cover the issues that my podcast addresses, but aren't podcast forums. Link to my show page is in the signature, that's about as far as I push it.
Great! I believe what you're describing here is hte best thing anyone can do to get listeners: find places where people interested in your subject matter hang out, and let them know about it.

Best of all, every effort spent on getting new listeners for your show helps everyone, because very few people listen to only one podcast. They'll start with yours, and then go seeking out more. Growing your own show really is the best thing you can do for the rest of the podcast community.

[Craig]

Then there's this:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/4639340.stm

Craig

[womengrow]

I believe what you're describing here is the best thing anyone can do to get listeners: find places where people interested in your subject matter hang out, and let them know about it.

Best of all, every effort spent on getting new listeners for your show helps everyone, because very few people listen to only one podcast. They'll start with yours, and then go seeking out more.

Well, I hope it works, I'd love to spread the wealth (although not much to spread yet :wink: )
My top five referring sites are:
- http://www.podcastpickle.com/forums/index.php
- http://www.podcastalley.com/forum/viewtopic.php
- http://www.podcastingnews.com/forum/viewtopic.php
- http://www.families.com/forums/showthread.php
- http://www.mothering.com/discussions/showthread.php

If this is true for other, the podcasters continue to predominantly attract other podcasters as listeners or at least those who are very much interested in this technology. But it's a start.