Personal Podcasting is a fad and will fade away?

[mental-escher]

Contributing editor David Coursey has spent two decades writing about hardware, software and communications for business customers. He can be reached at david_coursey@ziffdavis.com. He wrote recently (http://www.publish.com/article2/0,1759,1828748,00.asp):

Personal Podcasting, like personal blogs, is a fad and will fade. Just like personal sites were a fad in the early days of the Web. People experiment because content creation can be fun, sort of like finger-painting was back in preschool, but people also run out of creative energy, and the maintenance of a site, blog or Podcast becomes a chore. And the content gets boring, and the audience goes away.

I like the analogy of podcasting as fingerpainting! very true for many 'casts

Pioneer Webmasters quickly found that creating an interesting Web site required more art and photography skills than most of them possessed. They also learned that creating and maintaining an interesting site was a lot of work, with little reward.

Been there, done that. Problem with web sites is, prior to RSS, they were pull tech, not push tech like podcasting. Hence why blogs+rss made blogging a powerful cultural medium.

Thanks to blogging software, today it's much easier to create a personal Web site. Content creation—the writing and researching—remains a challenge. Similarly, audio tools make it possible to create a Podcast, but aren't much help in creating interesting content. At some point, the tools give way to human intellect.

Yep. Do your research, use your intelligence, and yee shall be rewarded.

My bet is that a year from today the most popular Podcasts will belong to names we already know. Podcasting, if people actually find it interesting, will be dominated by big business, although there will be some small players as well.

My guess is that aggregates of good microcasts will become maintream media commodities (6-7 short, interesting, podcasts aggregated into 60 min programs by genre). Also, good longer podcasts will remain (though there are precious few of those, and they are mostly 'casts of public radio shows).

Some public radio programming will find a life in Podcasting and could potentially find a large enough audience to support itself. Maybe education content or my beloved audio books will find more of an audience. Someone will even emerge as a Podcast star, but that person will quickly move to more traditional media because that's where the money is. Despite all this, Podcasting will never catch on with the masses.

Only true if you're chasing $, and thats why traditional radio/tv is dying... masses will follow if the content is relavent and interesting.

I've been in the media all my professional life and have spent years trying to understand audience behavior. I can't always tell what the masses will like, but I am pretty good at calling losers. And as a mass medium, Podcasting will be one of them.

Hard to argue with that, and maybe he's right, but in my opinion only in the sense that podcasts in their current form may be a flash in the pan. The same gloom and doom was said about the early internet(s)- mostly crap and missinformation (oh yeh, and lots of porn). Then came Yahoo and then came Google and Amazon and eBay and the rest is, as they say, history in the making.

Hmmm- Will a google (+iTunes = googlitunes??) "save" podcasting from this perception of seemingly dissorganized mediocrity?

[SFEley]

Personal Podcasting, like personal blogs, is a fad and will fade.
Personal blogs are fading? That's news. (http://www.sifry.com/alerts/archives/000298.html)

[allthewhile]

Well, yes, but then again everything will fade away. What is this? A great revelation? It was only the children who said that slap bracelets "ARE HERE TO STAY!!!! MOM!!!" So it will eventually die, or change, or grow a while and then die and change or morph or whatever.

I'd have to disagree with the quote that said maintaining the site can become tiresome. Creating and maintaining the site, for anyone is the easy part. It's the freshness of the content that's the challege. But I know people that've been flying remote control airplanes for YEARS. I MEAN YEARS. And they're adults. The thing is they have a community. Communities can have revival and renewals. If this thing stays isolated and relationships exist merely over the internet, then, I think, it may lose steam quickly. However, there are always those who just like doing something. Richard Vobes is one example. Does he ever have a day when he isn't full of enthusiasm?

[mental-escher]

Communities can have revival and renewals. If this thing stays isolated and relationships exist merely over the internet, then, I think, it may lose steam quickly.

Excellent point!

I believe also that the writer was thinking more from a "mass media appeal" perspective though.

[trueisnotfalse]

personal sites were a fad in the early days of the Web

That analogy works for me. I had a personal site in the early days of the Internet (circa 1993) I used it to learn how to build Web sites and now I do it professionally and get paid good money.

So flash forward to today. I'm experimenting with Podcasting...though it may sometimes be a struggle I'm learning. 8)

[tdkyo]

Everything new has a potential of fading away. PDAs are the latest victims these days.

[dcolanduno]

personal sites were a fad in the early days of the Web

Not sure, there could be an argument that a blog is only a tool that made personal sites bigger.

I don't equate podcasting to 'blogging' at all however. Maybe some people do, but I think they are very far from each other. People read and listen in a totally different mindset.

It would be like saying that TV is just 'video magazines' or a movie is a 'video book'. We all really know they are quite different and co-exist perfectly for really obvious reasons.

[dcolanduno]

(I somehow posted that twice)

[Hittman]

I don't pretend to know what will be a fad and what will stay. But every single new art form has been predicted to be a flash in the pan. Naysaying is easy, and satisfying if the naysayer is proven right.

Rock and Roll was denounced as a short-lived fad fifty years ago. The pontificators were quite wrong. The Twist was written off as a fad that would die out. The pontificators were right. CBs came and went (thankfully) but like most cultural phenomena there is a small surviving CB subculture. (It's a reverse Mensa society.) Disco died, and then was reborn as techno in all it's variations. (And if you've ever been to a wedding reception, you know that the original disco is still around, somewhat.) Blogs are still on the rise, and probably will continue to grow while the "experts" claim they're dead. Rap was called a fad that would fade away, and much to dismay of people who like music, that prediction hasn't come true.

I have no idea if podcasting is a fad that will become a much ignored sub-culture, like CB radio, or if it will be the Next Big Thing and have real staying power. I don't much care. I'm having fun with it, and will continue to do it until it ceases to be fun. If, or more likely, when, that happens, I'll move on to the next thing that catches my eye (ear). In the meantime, I'm having a blast with it, and that's all that matters to me.

[WyethDigital]

personal sites were a fad in the early days of the Web
Not sure, there could be an argument that a blog is only a tool that made personal sites bigger.

Excellent point! People want to put their thoughts out there quickly. They don't want to have to code their own site, or use clumsy Geocities tools to do it! Podcasting could be the same way. Get a good (or even functional) all-in-one app that can import, edit/mix, encode, and upload, then people will be flocking to Podcasting!

CBs came and went (thankfully) but like most cultural phenomena there is a small surviving CB subculture. (It's a reverse Mensa society.)
That "reverse mensa" remark comes off a little snobby. Sorry! I don't have much respect for Mensa, so maybe I'm a bit biased (some of the "geniuses" in the group have written some downright stupid opinions of race and culture).

But actually, I wasn't meaning to pick on Mensa. I was going to say that while the CB hobby went underground, the appeal that it represents has gone mainstream. The same could be said for shortwave radio broadcasters. They want to communicate to the world beyond their backyard fence. And while the tools are evolving, the desire has not faded. People that in the past might have found CBs fun are using cellular. Folks that would be shortwave broadcasting or pirate radio-ing can now Podcast. People that used to pull together their own 'zines and xerox them at work or the supermarket can now put up a blog. The need for broadcasting self-expression has always been there, and it always will be.

So will Podcasting be around next year? Sure! Will it be the same? Probably not. Will it be completely commercialized and/or abandoned by the folks doing it today? I seriously doubt it!

Sure, some of you will probably stop doing it, but someone new will come along to fill your spot. I have more faith in the creativity of people than to dismiss this as a mere fad. Self expression is never a fad. It is a part of who we are.

People who have been analyzing/predicting/commentating for 20 years like to be proven right, and they usually have it within their power to sell their opinions to a large part of their constituency, which sometimes makes their own predictions come true; but that doesn't mean they always know what they're talking about. David Coursey strikes me as someone who doesn't get-it. He's looking at it from an aging paradigm. You can't always balance the books when you're talking about free expression! It's too much of a wild card!


Eric

[Patrick]

Wait a minute...

Are you saying slap bracelets are out now?

[rwalch]

Here is a copy of the e-mail I sent to David yesterday.

Hello David,

Upon reading your article it became very clear you have not really listened to podcasts (outside of maybe one or two big names).

While you are quite correct that creating an interesting podcast is labor and time intensive, Podcasting is so much more than you describe and I think you greatly missed the mark in your article.

I am the host of podCast411 a podcast about interviewing other podcasters. Like Inside the Actors studio except for podcasters. You are probably familiar with only a couple of my guests (Senator John Edwards, Adam Curry) but most I am sure you never heard of (Wichita Rutherford, PK&J, Brian Ibbott). Even though you have not have heard of many of my guests I would like to say most of their podcasts are as good as anything being produced by "Professional Media" and in some cases much better and yes some are not very good. (which is the case in all media)

I think many people such as yourself have been blinded into believing they know today's media because they have "been in the media all my professional life". This I believe (based on your article) has caused you to see the media world through an old way of looking at things. The market has changed and is changing. Podcasting is one of the results of this change - it is a pull technology not a push technology. Who would have thought 2 years ago the number one song in the UK would be a Ring tone. Just like who would predict that 6 months from now the number one downloaded file on iTunes would come from a "non-professional" podcaster. But that will be the case.

I have been following articles written about the web all my life. I can't always tell what articles will hold up against the rigors of time, but I am pretty good at calling the losers and as an article on Podcasting goes yours will definitely be one of those losers.

I invite you to check out my podcast to learn more about Podcasting and podcasters. I am pretty sure you will not make it this far into the article - The truth always hurts the most. But if you do make it this far - I apologize for pre-judging you.

My site is at

http://www.podcast411.com

No Commercials - No Ad's - Just Podcast information.

Also if you are going to be at Gnomdex this week - I would love to meet with you and discuss podcasting further.

Best Regards,

Rob Walch
podCast411

rob@podcast411.com

No Response Yet - Although I highly doubt he will respond. I imagine he is an old media snob and wants nothing to do with nor does he understand podcasting. Again if he does respond I will update here.

[kickasspodcast]

I think that the podcasts that will thrive are the ones that continue to be consistant. Every show is on par with the next release and so on. I think that "Podcast Mania" is only in the distance.

The people who stick it out for the love are (IMHO) most likely to succeed.

Jack

[dcolanduno]

No Response Yet - Although I highly doubt he will respond. I imagine he is an old media snob and wants nothing to do with nor does he understand podcasting. Again if he does respond I will update here.

At least you tried, and didn't just complain and do nothing. All you can do sometimes.

If you had mentioned my show in there, you might have received a faster response! ;)

[rwalch]

Derek,

The only reason I did not mention your show is because we are not scheduled to interview you until July 12th. :D

[Patrick]

I wish someone somewhere would mention my show on something.

Skepticality has all the fun.

:cry:

[sydbarrett]

podPeople will never die

you guys and gals are awesome

just listen to top 50

and try to tell me something different

Later

[bramley]

Great letter, Rob. As usual, making the world safe for podcasting.

[bramley]

CBs came and went (thankfully) but like most cultural phenomena there is a small surviving CB subculture.

In part I think that CB culture became popular because, like everything else, of movies. Smokey and the Bandit anyone? Or TV. Dukes of Hazard? It was the language of pop culture for a spell.

So what we need is Podcast the Movie to get more people interested. Or how about a group of friends who all live together in New York and try to make it big in podcasting. One is an actor podcaster, one is a chef podcaster...

[Hittman]

That "reverse mensa" remark comes off a little snobby. Sorry! I don't have much respect for Mensa, so maybe I'm a bit biased (some of the "geniuses" in the group have written some downright stupid opinions of race and culture).

When the CB craze hit I was working in a Western Auto. We sold lots of CB radios, for both home and car, and got very familiar with the culture behind it. We'd look out the window, see people coming in from the parking lot, and say "Here comes a CBer!" We were right most of the time. They were usually physically filthy, wearing ratty clothes, and needing a shave (both the men and the women). Mullets were a common accouterment, and many of the men looked like they had their chin knocked off in a bar fight. They'd walk in, kids in tow, and slap down $300 (and these were 1978 dollars) to buy a CB rig. You'd look at the kids, who were dressed in shabby clothes and holey sneakers, and wish you could give them the money back and tell them to go next door and buy their kids some decent threads.

Yeah, that's a stereotype, but one borne of real experience. About 90% of the people who bought CBs fit this description.


So what we need is Podcast the Movie to get more people interested.

Very cool idea, but I would be surprised if it's not already being pitched in Hollywood.

"So there's this kid, see, and he makes these little radio shows and puts them on the Internet. He makes a show about how he blows up model cars with firecrackers, but there's a technical glitch and the word "model" is garbled and "firecrackers" sounds like "firebombs." So terrorists visit him, Okay, looking for tips, and then Homeland security gets into it, and they have a chase seine in a railroad yard where illegal aliens are hiding in a boxcar, and…"

I have no doubt that the first few podcast movies will be as technically accurate as "The Net."

[Patrick]

No, no, no...

The movie goes like this...

He makes a podcast that you listen to and you die 10 days after downloading, only you really do die because there is a killer who works at an ISP and is gep\o-locating people by there IP address and billing records.

Ta-Da!

[rwalch]

So Patrick,

After you listen to the podcast - Would you then get a weird Skype call?

And the only way to survive is forward a Podcast Alley Vote link for that podcast to 10 friends.

This is great - "Ring - The Podcast"

[Patrick]

And the killer will be SydBarrett. His podcast just plays NIN music backwards like at the beginning of the movie Se7en.

[bramley]

Hey Hittman, you making fun of my family? I mean they like ALL had CB's. My grandfather used to drive across Kansas happy as a lark for the chance to tell truckers they had Smokey on their tail or alerting anyone who would listen that there's slick roads in Topeka. I even had my own faux kid's CB circa 1978. I attribute all the "breaker, nine-one-nine-ing" to my present interest in podcasting. Watch it, with the mullet calling, dude. :wink:

I'm glad you're all playing along with the movie idea. Perhaps it should be turned into an Old Time Radio noir thingy put out as a podcast and then pitched to the big boys. Where do D&D fit in?

[Patrick]

Where do D&D fit in?

They will be in the theatre watching like everyone else.

[Hittman]

Eatfeed, I'm sure your mullet is lovely.

(Ducking…)

[dcolanduno]

So what we need is Podcast the Movie to get more people interested.

Actually,

When something that ISN'T a movie and is then made into one... doesn't that traditionally mark the 'end' or 'death bell' of it?

Look at T.V. shows when they are finally made into movies, it's over...

Etc, etc...

:)

Maybe we do some documentary like the Supersize Me guy, and have a group of podcasters 'podcast until you drop'... and monitor all their progress during the hours, and hours of talking into the mic... ;)

[bramley]

But War Games was just the beginning of hacking! :)

Man, am I showing my age all over these threads lately.

[timn]

Podcasting not a new phenomenon but rather a renaissance of audio -- prior to the advent of television, radio was front and center. Something old is new again. Yes Virginia, people really did gather around their radios at night to connect with the world.

Only this time, the barriers have been lowered to production and distribution.

The very idea that if an author ceases to produce a podcasts regularly, then their entire body of work is deemed invalid seems silly and misguided to me. It's so early yet. Imagine that I have an idea for a podcast that will be fully explored over, oh I dunno, maybe 6 episodes. Should I really just forget about it because it won't go on ad infinitum???

For the record, I believe that the resurgence of audio is here to stay -- because the voice can express what the written word cannot. Even once 'video podcasting' becomes viable, I suspect audio casting will remain strong. Mostly because audio-video production requires more effort than audio production.

[sydbarrett]

Podcasting not a new phenomenon but rather a renaissance of audio
Well said.....

[dcolanduno]

But War Games was just the beginning of hacking!

Man, am I showing my age all over these threads lately.

I thought it was that T.V. Show... Whiz Kids...

;)

[Hittman]

For the record, I believe that the resurgence of audio is here to stay -- because the voice can express what the written word cannot. Even once 'video podcasting' becomes viable, I suspect audio casting will remain strong. Mostly because audio-video production requires more effort than audio production.

Videocasting is cool, but even if the cost and efforts were the same as audio I don’t think it will become as popular. I can listen to podcasts while I'm driving, while I'm walking down the street, while I'm pretending to work. . . I can't do any of that with video.

Nothing lasts forever. Any show (of any kind), eventually. Some are fortunate enough to die before they jump the shark, others drone on embarrassingly. I still love Burns and Allen.

But I do think that any show that doesn't have "freshness" will wither, known to only a few.

[vox_monitor]

hi.

I have also read that article, and it made me mad for a second or two. But then I just shook my head. Once people have a chance to play on a level field with the media overlords, they never go back. And once people have more choice, they never want less.

It's really as simple as that.

[Patrick]

War Games is awesome. I think I'm gonna go watch it right now.

[vox_monitor]

For the record, I believe that the resurgence of audio is here to stay -- because the voice can express what the written word cannot. Even once 'video podcasting' becomes viable, I suspect audio casting will remain strong. Mostly because audio-video production requires more effort than audio production.

Videocasting is cool, but even if the cost and efforts were the same as audio I don’t think it will become as popular. I can listen to podcasts while I'm driving, while I'm walking down the street, while I'm pretending to work. . . I can't do any of that with video.

Nothing lasts forever. Any show (of any kind), eventually. Some are fortunate enough to die before they jump the shark, others drone on embarrassingly. I still love Burns and Allen.

But I do think that any show that doesn't have "freshness" will wither, known to only a few.


Yeah, audio, and text, are both here to stay forever. New media don't replace old media, they simpy add to the pool of available media in which one can work.

Text isn't going anywhere because it is the only medium that people can visually scan. It has no inherent duration. And in fact, it doesn't need to processed linearly at all. Most people read linearly, but that is a habit, not an inherent trait of the medium.

Audio isn't going anywhere for the reasons stated by Hittman, and also because it has it's own set of resonant aesthetic appeals. I mean, what works audio only of Joe Smith reading aloud is different, and is satisfying in different ways, than what works in video of someone reading aloud.

It isn't simply the video minus the pictures. It is an entirely different species of creature. In other words, video isn't "audio plus more! ", it's "video", and one can make or fail to make compelling content in either medium, but only according to the demands of that medium.

That's my take on it anyways.

Good Topic M.E. Interesting subject to talk about.

eric