Compare Audience size to traditional radio

[PaulCasting]

I was just thinking of something and figured I'd do a little research.

Arbitron is the same thing to radio as Neilsen is to television. So, I decided to check out what the arbitron ratings are for top stations in certain markets and how many listeners that means to them.

#1 Market: New York City. 12+ Population: 15,283,100
#1 Station in Fall of '04: WLTW with a 6.0 share (That's about 6% of the market)

This means the #1 station in the number one market has approximately 917,000 listeners. Now the top show on that station may have a 10 or even 15 rating... but this is a good idea of what the number one in the number one is doing.

Ok, so what about a medium sized market? Well, Arbitron rates 300 markets, I believe, so let's look at market 150.

#150 Market: Palm Springs, CA: 12+ Population: 287,100
#1 station in fall of '04: KUNA-FM with 14.9 share (just so you all know, KUNA is a spanish language station. Anyone doing a spanish PodCast? Maybe someone should...)

Ok, so 14.9% of 287,100 is 42,777. Anyone getting this kind of listenership on their PodCast? Hmmm.. didn't think so. But, think about this.. the middle of the ratings in Palm Springs is about a 3.5 share. That's just 10,000 listeners.

Ok, set's let's look at a station I worked at once. I won't mention the name, since I'm goin to mention costs of ads... They have a listenership of less than 20,000 people. What did a 60 second ad cost on there? Well, the standard rate was $60, but if you paid that you were getting took. NObody pays standard rate. The lowest I heard of what $20 something. So, let's say the typical person paid $40 per minute. That's how much per 1,000 listeners? About $2.00 per 1,000 listeners. And this was a very targeted demographic, so they could charge a little more than just your typical jazz station.

Hopefully that puts your PodCast audience into perspective. I know some of you aren't doing it for money... most likely MOST of you aren't. But, it's interesting to note, that the middle of the road in Palm Springs isn't much bigger than an Adam Curry Podcast. We don't have that far to go before we start competing with the same numbers regular radio has.

I hope this encourages all of you.

Paul
www.EastpointRadio.com

[yaz]

whoa! e can make money doing this? if it were such a concern i'd go get a real job, this is for fun for me, i don't know how many are holding their breath hoping this will materialize...hey keeme, maybe we should team up for a spanish podcast...

[PaulCasting]

I understand most of the pioneers in Podcasting are doing it for fun and have no desire to do this for money. I love radio enough to do it for free as well. But...

You've got to remember, big names in radio are starting to jump onto this Podcasting thing and they're going to squeeze out the little guy, like it or not. Right or wrong, this is what's going to happen. People can stick their head in the sand, but that's not going to change the course.

I just noticed one of the top talk shows in America, Dave Ramsey, has started Podcasting 1 hour of his show and mentioned charging people to access the other 2 hours in Podcast form. They have a huge audience and the bandwidth is going to kill 'em if they don't figure out how to pay for it.

If you're promoting your show with a $40 a month budget and they're doing with a $40,000 a month budget, within a few months people aren't going to know who you are. Oh sure, you can say "I was a pioneer, I did it for the love of radio, not money." But, nobody will care.

Where are all the people who were using the web in 1995 and fought commercialization of it? Do we remember any of them? Would we like the web to go back to those days? Some would say yes, of course, but, by far, the majority are out there, buying and selling on eBay, Amazon, iTunes, etc.

Paul
www.EastpointRadio.com

[Insomnia Radio]

Wow Paul. IN post #1 you're encouraging the podcast community, in post #2 you're telling us we're doomed, like it or not...

I feel so bipolar....

[jeffoest]

Paul. I'm no so sure I agree with you completely.

I think the greatness and promise of this podcasting 'culture/movement' is that there is plenty of 'long tail' for the amateurs with niche content and volumes that don't necessarily produce much revenue.

In the radio model, that small volume niche amateur player simply can't play. In this model we can and we will get listeners - albeit not Howard Stern / Dave Ramsey numbers, but we'll have them and an outlet...

[Craig]

As far as traditional radio crowding out the amateurs I completely disagree. The whole reason most people have turned to podcasting is because it's NOT traditional radio. There are already ways to timeshift traditional radio onto your iPod if that's what you want to do (Griffin's radioSHARK, for example). Podcasting is thriving primarily because it offers content that you can't find on traditional radio.

When traditional radio joins the party it will be good for podcasting overall, in that it will bring a ton of new listeners who will end up discovering the alternative content. Our job is to make sure that we have set up the structure for that content to be just as visible as everything else.

Craig

[Ian]

Paulcasting,

While your premise is valid, your method is incorrect. "Share" is not a percentage of population, but instead a percentage of "Persons Using Radio". Since not everyone listens to radio, the listenership numbers you calculated are higher than they actually are.

You'd be better off looking at cume as opposed to share to determine listenership: http://www.rrconline.org/help_desk/glossary.php

Best Regards,
Ian

[spaz]

ahhh...popularity contests...do we ever leave the highschool mentality? :twisted:

[PaulCasting]

Well, I guess I would have to agree with you all. The niche aspect of it all is what will keep it alive for the smaller audience podcaster.

The point of my original post was to say, while nobody is doing what the #1 station in the #1 market is doing, but some are approaching small market sizes. That's good news!

The second post was meant as a response to the post above it that kind of ridiculed the concept of some making money with Podcasting. There's no way to compete with the big dogs if we keep a little dog mentality.

But, I would have to say I humbley agree with the responses. I love Podcasting cause it allows someone like me to do what I love and not have to work at someone elses schedule for $8 an hour running a board or answering the phones. So, the correction to my thoughts is well taken.

Paul
www.EastpointRadio.com

[Illinoise]

*Raises hand*

I also board-op'd for $8/hr. throughout high school and college. But mine was at a country station.

Yeah, that's love for the game.

As for making money in podcasting, the only guy who's doing it right now is Craig Patchett. You see, he legally trademarked the terms "godcast", "golfcast", "gourdcast", "grandmacast", "sasscast", "nasajanetcast" and "bootycast" and is selling t-shirts with those words on them. He is also in negotiations for a podcast breakfast cereal.

It's all about thinking outside the box. That's why he also trademarked "outsidetheboxcast".

On a less serious note, why hasn't NIC released .blog and .cast domain suffixes? Am I right? Talk about pure gold.

[Craig]

That is SO not true. I never trademarked "bootycast." (I did try to trademark "bodycast" but it was already taken.)

I AM selling t-shirts: http://www.cafepress.com/podcastshop ... total sales to date: 0.

My big money-making plan, however, is to sell nasajanet.com to the highest bidder. I am currently accepting offers. :lol:

Craig

[yaz]

i think that guy that is gonna charge to get the last two thirds of his show should sit on it and rotate, that's a crock...if the listeners pay, they should join him...

[ebrage]

The way I see it, podcasting is where the Internet was at a point in the 90s, and perhaps where blogs were around two years ago: very new, very exciting, very wide-open.

Podcasting and podcasters are going to evolve very rapidly, but there will be always be room with those who produce interesting content -- just like the Web, just like blogs. Having money always helps, but so does putting out a consistent product.

[yaz]

well, yea consistency will be a big issue, will people be able to keep it up...